Research
2
min read

2022 Australian Federal Election Power Rankings

Published on
May 9, 2022
Author
William Wright
for GovConnex Research
Before GovConnex Research is published here, it's sent exclusively to GovConnex Platform subscribers.
Power rankings updated daily ahead of the May 21 federal election

Our Methodology

Making seat by seat predictions in an Australian context is difficult, polling data is sparse and the diverse makeup of the country delivers ostensibly similar electorates with vastly different issues.

To make the most accurate predictions we consulted electoral experts from different jurisdictions to determine best-in-class practice. As a result, we have built a model taking into account a number of different factors, some of these include:

  • Partisan Voter Index
  • Polling
  • Fundraising
  • Incumbency
  • Challengers
  • Leader Popularity/Approval Rating
  • Volunteers
  • Odds
  • Advertising Spend
  • Qualitative Factors

Of course, elections always provide surprises and no methodology is flawless. However, we hope that hedging our analysis across a variety of factors will provide your organisation with the best possible vision to mitigate against any surprises and give you more detail than a traditional 2PP poll.

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