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May 9, 2022
2022 Australian Federal Election Power Rankings
Where each seat is likely to fall and what to watch on the evening.
Contents
What you need to know
The Announcements
Summary
Research, Tracking, Engaging Made Smarter
Easy to use tools to uncover risk, track issues and report your engagement
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Power rankings updated daily ahead of the May 21 federal election
Our Methodology
Making seat by seat predictions in an Australian context is difficult, polling data is sparse and the diverse makeup of the country delivers ostensibly similar electorates with vastly different issues.
To make the most accurate predictions we consulted electoral experts from different jurisdictions to determine best-in-class practice. As a result, we have built a model taking into account a number of different factors, some of these include:
- Partisan Voter Index
- Polling
- Fundraising
- Incumbency
- Challengers
- Leader Popularity/Approval Rating
- Volunteers
- Odds
- Advertising Spend
- Qualitative Factors
Of course, elections always provide surprises and no methodology is flawless. However, we hope that hedging our analysis across a variety of factors will provide your organisation with the best possible vision to mitigate against any surprises and give you more detail than a traditional 2PP poll.
