John Fetterman (D) vs. Mehmet Oz (R)
Many analysts predict that the winning party in this battle will win ultimate control of the Senate. 53 year old six-foot-eight tattooed Harvard graduate John Fetterman is pitted against 62 year old TV Doctor Mehmet Oz (Dr Oz).
Fetterman had a stroke in May of this year, severely hindering his auditory processing abilities. Fetterman now requires the help of a computer to process auditory information, a fact that has caused heavy conflict between the two candidates.
Key issues - Fetterman’s health, crime, fracking, abortion, Oz’s residency, and the economy.
Who wins? Polls have this contest as a dead heat, a poor debate performance last Tuesday by Fetterman has shifted the momentum towards Oz. However independent candidate Everett Stern, who was polling at 3% has dropped out and endorsed Fetterman, potentially providing a critical boost for the Democrats.
Raphael Warnock (D) vs. Herschel Walker (R)
Former NFL superstar Herschel Walker faces incumbent senator and church pastor Raphael Warnock. The contest has gathered national attention as it was revealed that anti-abortion Walker had paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion. Walker’s son Christian has come out against his father. On the other side, allegations of domestic violence have been levelled at Warnock from his ex-wife.
Key issues - Abortion, Warnock’s character, Walker’s character, jobs.
Who wins? Polls are neck-and-neck. Walker along with many Republicans has seen a strong boost in the past week.
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs. Adam Laxalt (R)
Incumbent senator Cortez Masto faces lawyer and former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt. Nevada was surprisingly won by President Biden in 2020 by 2.7 points. Cortez Masto has faced difficulties establishing a popular personal brand since entering the Senate in 2017. Rent and gas costs have risen faster in Nevada than anywhere else in the US.
Key issues - Inflation, crime, climate change.
Who wins? The closest of all the Senate races, flip a coin.
California - 22nd congressional district
David Valadao (R) v. Rudy Salas (D)
Colorado - 8th congressional district
Barbara Kirkmeyer (R) v. Yadira Caraveo (D)
Iowa - 3rd congressional district
Zach Nunn (R) v. Cindy Axne (D)
Minnesota - 2nd congressional district
Tyler Kistner (R) v. Angie Craig (D)
Nebraska - 2nd congressional district
Don Bacon (R) v. Tony Vargas (D)
New Mexico - 2nd congressional district
Yvette Herrell (R) v. Gabriel Vasquez (D)
New York - 19th congressional district
Marc Molinaro (R) v. Josh Riley (D)
New York - 22nd congressional district
Brandon Williams (R) v. Francis Conole (D)
North Carolina - 13th congressional district
Bo Hines (R) v. Wiley Nickel (D)
Ohio - 1st congressional district
Steve Chabot (R) v. Greg Landsman (D)
Ohio - 13th congressional district
Madison Gilbert (R) v. Emilia Sykes (D)
Oregon - 5th congressional district
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) v. Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D)
Oregon - 6th congressional district
Mike Erickson (R) v. Andrea Salinas (D)
Pennsylvania - 7th congressional district
Lisa Scheller (R) v. Susan Wild (D)
Pennsylvania - 8th congressional district
Jim Bognet (R) v. Matt Cartwright (D)
Pennsylvania - 17th congressional district
Jeremy Shaffer(R) v. Chris Deluzio (D)
Virginia - 2nd congressional district
Jen Kiggans (R) v. Elaine Luria (D)
Washington - 8th congressional district
Matt Larkin (R) v. Kim Schrier (D)
Incumbent governor and potential 2024 presidential candidate Ron DeSantis (R) is up against former Florida congressman Charlie Crist (D). DeSantis should win easily as Florida continues to move away from its traditional status as a swing state.
Perhaps the most fascinating battle of the entire election. Republican Lee Zeldin (R) is a live chance of unseating Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul (D), this would be the first time a Republican has held the New York governorship since 2008. Rising crime in New York City has been the key issue of the campaign. Hochul assumed office in 2021 after governor Andrew Cuomo was forced to resign following allegations of sexual harrassment.
Incumbent Republican governor Brian Kemp (R) is once again facing popular Democrat Stacey Abrams (D). Kemp is leading the polls by an average of 6.2%. Abrams is seen as a potential 2024 presidential candidate. If elected in Georgia, she would be the first female African American governor of any state. Abrams was instrumental in increasing African American voter participation in Georgia during the 2020 election, a state that was critical to the final result.
Incumbent Democratic governor Laura Kelly (D) is up against Kansas state attorney general Derek Schmidt (R) , Kelly is renowned for her bipartisanship and desire to distance herself from the rest of the Democratic Party in a state that President Trump won by 15 points.
Incumbent Democratic governor Tony Evers (D) faces construction business owner Tim Michels (R) , Wisconsin is likely to be a swing state again in the 2024 presidential election. Michels has gained campaign support from Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin (R), who in 2021 flipped his state red.
Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo (R) is looking to unseat incumbent governor Steve Sisolak (D). Lombardo is relying heavily on criticising the state's curriculum particularly when it comes to issues of race. This strategy was successful for Glenn Youngkin (R) in Virginia.
Former Oregon house minority leader Christine Drazan (R) has a strong chance of turning the governor seat red for the first time in 40 years. Drazan faces Tina Kotek (D) who looks to take over from unpopular incumbent Kate Brown (D). Former Democrat Betsy Johnson is running as an independent, taking Democratic votes away from Kotek.
Polling from FiveThirtyEight provides an updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.
Georgia - +1.7
Pennsylvania - +1.9
Nevada - +0.4
Ohio - +1.4
North Carolina - +2.6
Wisconsin - +3.4
Note: the top three contests have tightened significantly with the most recent polls showing the Republican candidates ahead.
Generic Ballot (polls the party people plan on voting for and not candidate)
Florida - +10
New York - +7.3
Georgia - +6.7
Oregon - Even
Wisconsin - +0.4
Nevada - +0.9
Oklahoma - +1
Arizona - +2.8
Minnesota - +8.1
Kansas - +2
Polling averages valid as of 31 October 2022
Republican Majority - $1.45
Democrat Majority - $8.50
No Majority (50-50) - $3.10
Republican - $1.04
Democrat - $8.50
Republican - $1.67
Democrat - $2.25
Donald J Trump - $4.33
Joe Biden - $5
Kamala Harris - $13
Ron DeSantis - $4.50
Stacey Abrams - $81
Pete Buttigeg - $26
Gavin Newsom - $15
Odds valid as of 31 October 2022.
GovConnex Research is available first to GovConnex platform subscribers
Before you engage. GovConnex.
GovConnex provides research and workflow software for teams that interact with the government. Servicing large corporations, government relations firms, industry associations and lawmakers.
GovConnex Research provides quick insights and reports on all the elections, issues, and news that matters to you. Delivered to customers first.
Subscribe here to receive our fortnightly Research Briefs.
Subscribe here to receive our fortnightly Guidance Notes.