Before GovConnex Research is published here, it's sent exclusively to GovConnex Platform subscribers.
Making seat by seat predictions in an Australian context is difficult, let alone in a Victorian context. Polling data is sparse and the diverse makeup of the state delivers ostensibly similar electorates with vastly different issues.
To make the most accurate predictions we consulted electoral experts from different jurisdictions to determine best-in-class practice. As a result, we have built a model taking into account a number of different factors, some of these include:
Partisan Voter Index
Leader Popularity/Approval Rating
Of course, elections always provide surprises and no methodology is flawless. However, we hope that hedging our analysis across a variety of factors will provide your organisation with the best possible vision to mitigate against any surprises and give you more detail than a traditional 2PP poll.
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