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February 17, 2025

2025 German Election Preview

Source: Michael Kappeler, Pool via AFP

Executive Summary
  • Following the collapse of the SPD-led coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz in late 2024, a ‘snap’ election of the Bundestag will be held on 23 February 2025.
  • The centre-right CDU/CSU party led by Friedrich Merz, and the party of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, is confidently leading the polls.
  • The increasing popularity of the far-right AfD party has agitated the broad left-wing of German politics and represents a deepening concern of voters with immigration policy and the role of the European Union.
  • The key issues in the election are the economy and migration. Germany’s economy has contracted two years in a row and structural reform of the constitutional ‘debt brake’ has continuously failed to manifest.
  • Due to the nature of Germany’s electoral system which tends to produce coalition governments, a leading party may emerge on election night however the nature of the government will take weeks to firm up.

Download GovConnex's full 2025 German Election Preview to read more.

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