May 9, 2022

2022 Australian Federal Election Power Rankings

Where each seat is likely to fall and what to watch on the evening.
What you need to know
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Power rankings updated daily ahead of the May 21 federal election

Our Methodology

Making seat by seat predictions in an Australian context is difficult, polling data is sparse and the diverse makeup of the country delivers ostensibly similar electorates with vastly different issues.

To make the most accurate predictions we consulted electoral experts from different jurisdictions to determine best-in-class practice. As a result, we have built a model taking into account a number of different factors, some of these include:

  • Partisan Voter Index
  • Polling
  • Fundraising
  • Incumbency
  • Challengers
  • Leader Popularity/Approval Rating
  • Volunteers
  • Odds
  • Advertising Spend
  • Qualitative Factors

Of course, elections always provide surprises and no methodology is flawless. However, we hope that hedging our analysis across a variety of factors will provide your organisation with the best possible vision to mitigate against any surprises and give you more detail than a traditional 2PP poll.

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