The Conservatives: where to?
Where the Conservatives stood in early 2025, squeezed by Reform after their worst defeat in modern history
The Conservatives won just 121 seats on 23.7% of the vote at the 2024 general election, their worst defeat in modern British history. In April 2025 the brief looked at why they lost so heavily, how Kemi Badenoch had fared as leader, where the party stood in the polls, and what the May local elections and talk of a pact with Reform UK could mean.
Its argument was that a split on the right, more than a surge for Labour, explained the scale of the defeat: Reform UK took 14.3% and knocked the Conservatives out of contention in many seats while winning only five. By early 2025 Reform had overtaken the Conservatives in the polls, and a poor result in May could put Badenoch’s leadership, and her refusal of any pact, under pressure.
The full report · 5 pages, with every chart.
Get the full reportWhat we found
1. A split on the right, not a swing to Labour, explained the scale of the defeat
The Conservatives fell to 121 seats on 23.7%, against 165 seats on 30.6% in 1997, while Labour won on just 33.7% of the vote with a small swing. Reform UK polled 14.3% but won only five seats because its vote was spread evenly, enough in many seats to hand them to Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
2. Reform UK overtook the Conservatives in the polls in January 2025
Conservative support peaked in December 2024 and began to slip around January, when Reform overtook it; from February Reform was neck and neck with Labour. Polls in early 2025 showed a rough three-way split with the Conservatives usually third, which under first-past-the-post could hand Reform traditional Conservative seats or help Labour and the Liberal Democrats win more.
3. Badenoch’s trust-first strategy had yet to break through
Elected leader after beating Robert Jenrick in the members’ vote, Kemi Badenoch avoided major policy announcements to focus on rebuilding trust in the party first and policies later. Five months in, the brief found she had struggled to break through against a first-term government with a large majority, while leading a weak and demoralised party and contending with Reform for the role of opposition.
4. The May local elections could test the leadership and revive talk of a pact
An MRP of local election voting intention had Reform and the Conservatives on 25% each and Labour on 18%, which the brief estimated would see Reform take about half the Conservatives’ council seats, leaving both parties just under 700. Badenoch had rejected any pact with Reform, but a poor result could bring a challenge from someone more open to one, such as Robert Jenrick.
What’s in the report
- How the 2024 result compared with 1997, and the part Reform UK played
- Kemi Badenoch’s first five months as leader
- Westminster polling since the election, with a poll-tracker chart
- The May 2025 local elections and the case for and against a pact with Reform
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