One year of Labour
How the Starmer government’s first year measured up on its manifesto, the economy and its majority
Labour won 412 seats and a majority of 174 at the 2024 general election, on 34% of the vote and a turnout of 60%. A year on, the brief reviewed the Starmer government’s first twelve months: its manifesto pledges, the economy and public services, the welfare rebellion, the EU reset, Rachel Reeves’ first year as Chancellor, and the resignations and controversies along the way.
Its verdict was that Labour had made inroads into its pledges and completed trade deals with the US and the EU, but that it had been a tricky year for a government with so large a majority, marked by backbench rebellions and U-turns. By July 2025 Labour was averaging 24% in the polls, ten points down on the election, and the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom had gone.
The full report · 16 pages, with every chart.
Get the full reportWhat we found
1. Over 100 Labour MPs forced the government to rewrite its welfare bill
The Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill aimed to save £5 billion by 2030 by tightening PIP eligibility, under rules an estimated 430,000 new applicants would have failed. After more than 100 Labour MPs signed an amendment and threatened to rebel, the government dropped the eligibility change pending a review of PIP due to finish at the end of 2026, and let the health top-up rise with inflation for existing claimants.
2. The Chancellor’s fiscal headroom had gone, leaving cuts or tax rises
The fiscal rules began with £9.9 billion of headroom, but lower growth and higher spending had erased it by the Spring Statement, and the U-turns on the winter fuel allowance and PIP made things worse. With pledges ruling out rises in income tax, VAT and employee National Insurance, and backbenchers resisting cuts, the brief saw few options for the autumn Budget. Borrowing in the first two months of 2025/26 was £37.7 billion, £1.6 billion more than a year earlier.
3. Growth stalled, with GDP falling in both April and May 2025
GDP grew 0.9% in the year to March 2025, then shrank by 0.3% in April and a further 0.1% in May. Inflation rose from 2.0% in May 2024 to 3.4% in May 2025, unemployment reached 4.5% in the first quarter, its highest in almost four years, and employers pushed back against the rise in their National Insurance contributions to 15%.
4. NHS waiting lists fell, but small boat crossings reached a record
The elective waiting list fell from about 7.6 million to 7.4 million, though the share of patients treated within 18 weeks only moved from 58.8% to 59.7% against a 92% target for the end of the parliament. More than 44,000 people arrived in small boats in Labour’s first twelve months, up more than 12,000 (40%) on the year before and a record for the period.
What’s in the report
- A pledge-by-pledge review of Labour’s manifesto, from waiting lists to defence spending
- The economy, public services, immigration, housing and education after twelve months
- The EU reset deal area by area, and Rachel Reeves’ first year as Chancellor
- The resignations and controversies of year one
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