State by State: Victoria, NSW and the national picture

What we’ll cover

• Victoria's three way race
• NSW, heading into March
• Polling and electoral dynamics of other states
• One Nation’s rise federally, and how it’s playing out in the states

What we covered

On 30 October, Ben Raue and Michael Evangelidis ran through the latest polling in Victoria and New South Wales, then the federal picture, Queensland and New Zealand.

One month out, Ben sees Victoria looking more conventional than it did mid-year. The Coalition is edging towards a majority on a historically low primary vote, while One Nation’s vote remains enormous. In NSW, optional preferential voting changes the maths. Roughly half of preferences exhaust, so Labor could lose some seats and still stay in power by winning others.

Everyone who registered received the recording, the slides and a written briefing.

What’s in the briefing

• Victoria p. 1
• One Nation’s cliff p. 1
• Can Labor still win? p. 1
• The upper house p. 1
• New South Wales p. 2
• Optional preferential voting p. 2
• Federal p. 2
• Who votes One Nation p. 2
• Queensland p. 2
• New Zealand p. 2

From the slides

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• +37 more slides

Speakers

• BR Ben Raue Electoral analyst, GovConnex
• ME Michael Evangelidis Product & Marketing Lead, GovConnex