Victorian Election 2026: Preview
Who could form government in Victoria, how votes may turn into seats, and the 52 seats to watch on 28 November
By Ben Raue, Electoral analyst
Victoria votes on 28 November in one of the most unusual state elections in Australian history. One Nation is polling neck and neck with Labor, which looks set to lose power after twelve years, while the Coalition leads with around a third of the vote. Ben Raue looks at the polls, how those votes may turn into seats and who could form government.
The brief sets out the possible governments, from a Coalition majority to a minority deal with One Nation, and identifies 52 potentially competitive seats across four kinds of contest. It closes with the upper house race after the end of group voting tickets, and how the count may unfold on election night and in the weeks after.
The full report · 18 pages, with every chart.
Get the full reportWhat we found
1. The Coalition has pulled ahead since One Nation entered the polls
Pollsters added One Nation at the start of 2026 and it quickly passed 20%. By mid-year the three main parties were level in the mid-20s. Coalition support has grown since, and early November polls from Resolve, DemosAU and Newspoll all had the Coalition above 30%. Two of those polls had Labor behind One Nation.
2. A small shift in One Nation’s vote could mean a huge shift in seats
Modelling after the mid-2026 Redbridge MRP found One Nation’s share of seats changes quickly between 20% and 30% of the primary vote. At 20% it would win very few seats. At 30% it would win close to half. With primary votes this low, a party can win by making the top two and relying on preferences.
3. Preferences help One Nation more against Labor than against the Coalition
At the South Australian election in March 2026, Liberal preferences favoured One Nation in contests between Labor and One Nation. When a Liberal faced One Nation, Labor preferences favoured the Liberal. So One Nation may beat a Labor rival on a lower primary vote than it would need against a Liberal or National.
4. 52 seats could be competitive across four kinds of contest
The longest list is 21 outer suburban Labor seats where Labor, the Coalition and One Nation could all be competitive. There are 14 classic Labor and Liberal contests, and 10 contests between the Coalition and One Nation, mostly in Nationals seats. In seven seats around inner Melbourne, the Greens are in the race.
What’s in the report
- Why this election is different p. 3
- State of the polls p. 3
- The One Nation cliff: how votes may turn into seats p. 5
- Different government scenarios p. 7
- Seats to watch p. 9
- The upper house contest p. 17
- Election night and the count p. 18
How we counted
Seat estimates average two MRP polls conducted in mid-2026 by Redbridge and YouGov, which estimated primary votes in all 88 electorates, then apply a uniform swing so the figures match the latest BludgerTrack state polling average. Preference estimates draw on how preferences flowed from third-placed candidates at the March 2026 South Australian election.
Thanks. Your report is downloading.
