Where are the teals?
Where the teal independents stand after 2025, and whether they could decide the next government
By Ben Raue, Electoral analyst
GovConnex Report September 2026 Where are the teals? The teal independents were one of the biggest stories of the 2022 federal election, winning former Liberal heartland seats across Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. Ben Raue looks at who counts as a teal, where the model has and hasn’t worked since, and what the teals could do if the next parliament is hung.
The teals have lost some prominence, but One Nation’s surge hasn’t hurt them: a Coalition struggling to hold its rural base is unlikely to threaten them in the cities, and Raue expects them all to be re-elected barring local surprises. If Labor loses its majority, they face a dilemma: elected in traditionally conservative seats, they owe much to Labor and Greens voters, and a deal with One Nation looks unlikely.
The full report · 13 pages, with every chart.
Get the full reportWhat we found
1. Labor’s 94-seat majority could be gone at the next election
Labor won 94 of 150 seats in 2025, its biggest parliamentary majority since the Second World War. DemosAU’s MRP poll from May to July 2026 projected Labor would win 68 seats and One Nation sixty. More recent polling has slightly improved Labor’s position, but losing its majority remains a realistic prospect.
2. Eight teal and teal-adjacent MPs could decide who governs in a hung parliament
The House has thirteen crossbenchers, including one Greens MP, conservatives Bob Katter and Dai Le, former National Andrew Gee and left-leaning independent Andrew Wilkie. The other eight are teals or close to them: Nicolette Boele, Kate Chaney, Helen Haines, Monique Ryan, Sophie Scamps, Rebekha Sharkie, Allegra Spender and Zali Steggall. Many could support some kind of Coalition government, but not one formed with One Nation, so for now they act as a buffer keeping Labor in office.
3. The One Nation surge leaves the Liberals little room to win back teal seats
After 2025 the Coalition held no seats in Adelaide or Perth, one Melbourne seat not on the city’s fringe and five in Sydney, and was wiped out of northern Sydney when it narrowly lost Bradfield to Nicolette Boele. Fighting One Nation for its rural base, it is unlikely to threaten the teal MPs. The clearest new targets for teal candidates are Goldstein, which Tim Wilson won back in 2025, and Berowra.
4. The teal model has not yet worked in rural seats
Independents came second in Cowper, Wannon, Calare, Nicholls and Groom in 2022, but none of the rural “community independents” who ran in 2025 won, and Michelle Milthorpe’s vote after preferences at the 2026 Farrer by-election was below her 2025 result. With One Nation likely to absorb much of the energy in rural areas, Raue doubts an independent tied closely to the urban teal model will win there at the next federal election.
What’s in the report
- Introduction p. 3
- What is a ‘teal’? p. 4
- Teal prospects p. 8
- A teal balance of power? p. 11
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