The multicultural marginals
Where Australia’s diverse suburbs could decide the next election, and whether One Nation can compete there
By Ben Raue, Electoral analyst
Labor’s wins in 2022 and 2025 were the most urban victories ever seen in Australian politics, and the cities that delivered them are among the most diverse places in the country. At the 2021 census, 43% of Greater Sydney residents were born overseas and 52% had both parents born overseas. Ben Raue looks at how particular communities have swung recent contests, and which diverse seats are now marginal.
Swings concentrated in Chinese, Indian and Muslim communities have each shaped a recent result. One Nation is now strong enough to threaten most of the remaining Coalition seats in the regions, but winning government would also mean winning in the cities. The 2026 South Australian election points to one path, through traditionally safe Labor seats on Adelaide’s outskirts.
The full report · 19 pages, with every chart.
Get the full reportWhat we found
1. Chinese communities swung strongly to Labor in 2022
Labor gained Bennelong, Reid, Tangney and Chisholm, seats with some of the largest numbers of voters of Chinese ancestry, and came surprisingly close in Menzies. Booth results show the swing was heaviest where Chinese ancestry was highest: almost every area above 10% swung to Labor. In Parramatta it helped Andrew Charlton hold the seat despite a swing against him in the west. Labor went on to win Banks, Menzies and Deakin in 2025.
2. Suburbs with large Indian communities backed the Voice
The 2023 referendum failed nationally, but suburbs with the most residents of Indian ancestry often voted Yes, from Westmead and Wentworthville in Parramatta to Tarneit in Melbourne’s west. Even within seats such as Greenway, Holt and Parramatta, suburbs with larger Indian communities had stronger Yes votes. Chinese communities voted in line with the rest of their seats and gave No a small majority.
3. Muslim voters shifted away from Labor’s primary vote in 2025
After the war in Gaza, booths with large Muslim communities swung harder against Labor on the primary vote, most clearly in Blaxland, Watson, Wills, Bruce and Calwell. Independents took most of that swing in Blaxland and Watson, though neither came close to winning. Elsewhere the Greens picked it up, which may help explain their gains in middle suburbs. Labor’s two-party vote still rose, as the Liberals were even less preferred.
4. One Nation can poll well in diverse seats on Adelaide’s fringe
At the 2026 South Australian election, One Nation generally did better in seats with more Australian-born residents. But it also did well in some more diverse seats on Adelaide’s outskirts that had traditionally been safe for Labor: Elizabeth, Ramsay and Taylor. Raue suggests that in some suburban seats the party could draw non-white voters who are fed up with the system and want to cast a strong anti-establishment vote.
What’s in the report
- The reign of the cities p. 3
- Multicultural swing stories p. 5
- Multicultural marginal seats? p. 11
- Can One Nation compete in multicultural Australia? p. 13
- Multicultural marginal seats p. 15
How we counted
The brief matches 2021 census data on birthplace, ancestry, language and religion to booth and suburb results from the 2022 and 2025 federal elections, the 2023 Voice referendum and the 2026 South Australian election. Suburbs are included where the swing could be calculated for every booth and census data matched to booth lists, or for the referendum where at least 500 votes were cast. It compares Labor’s 2025 two-party vote with the share of residents born in Australia in each electorate, and profiles eight diverse seats that could matter at the next election.
Thanks. The report has opened in a new tab.
