New Zealand: three months out
A close contest between two blocs, with New Zealand First gaining on its partners before the 7 November vote
New Zealand votes on 7 November 2026, three years after the National-led coalition replaced Labour. The polls point to a close contest: the right-wing bloc of National, New Zealand First and ACT holds a slight lead, and the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori is more competitive once a possible overhang in the Māori electorates is counted.
Even if the government is returned, it will look different. National’s support has kept falling, Christopher Luxon has survived a caucus confidence vote and a challenge from Chris Penk, and New Zealand First is on track for 13–17 seats, up from eight, mostly at the expense of National and ACT. That points to New Zealand First taking more seats around the cabinet table.
Voters’ priorities hold few surprises. An Ipsos Issues Monitor survey in May 2026 put inflation and the cost of living first, followed by healthcare and the economy. National was rated most capable on the economy and crime, the Greens on climate change, and Labour on most other issues.
The full report · 12 pages, with every chart.
Get the full reportWhat we found
1. New Zealand First is gaining at its coalition partners’ expense
The most recent Talbot Mills poll projected 39 National, 15 New Zealand First and 9 ACT seats: nine fewer for National, two fewer for ACT and seven more for New Zealand First. Across the polls, New Zealand First is on track for 13–17 seats, up from 8 in 2023. Cabinet now has 14 National ministers and three each from the two smaller parties, and New Zealand First would likely take more of those seats in a second term.
2. The right bloc leads, but a Labour-led government is not out of the question
National, New Zealand First and ACT have been slightly ahead of the left bloc in most polls since early 2025. Of eight polls published since the start of June, two had Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori in a majority and six would have produced a National–New Zealand First–ACT majority. With Winston Peters again ruling out working with Labour, each bloc can only form government within itself.
3. Te Pāti Māori’s split could cost the left its overhang seat
In 2023 Te Pāti Māori’s list vote entitled it to five seats but it won six electorates, so one seat was added to parliament. Two of its six MPs, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Tākuta Ferris, now effectively sit as independents after the party voted to expel them in November 2025, and Kapa-Kingi plans to run for a new Te Tai Tokerau Party. If their seats go back to Labour, the overhang effect might go away.
4. Proportional voting softens New Zealand’s populist surge
New Zealand First won eight seats on 6.1% in 2023, while One Nation won no seats in Australia’s lower house in 2025 on 6.4% and Reform UK won five on 14.3%. As support grows, New Zealand’s system dampens the effect, where under Australia’s, recent polling would likely give One Nation well over 50 seats and mostly wipe out the Coalition. The brief also suggests New Zealand First’s place ‘inside the tent’ as a party of government mutes its protest vote.
What’s in the report
- Introduction p. 3
- Recent political events in New Zealand p. 4
- Possible shape of the new parliament p. 7
- Broader context of New Zealand trends p. 10
- The issues of the election p. 11
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