The renters vote in Australian politics
How the growing share of Australians who rent is changing who votes for which party
By Ben Raue, Electoral analyst
More Australians are renting, and for more of their lives. Home ownership fell from a peak of 71% in 1966 to 67% in 2021, and among 25 to 34 year olds from 61% in 1981 to 43%. Ben Raue looks at how this shift is changing Australian politics, as owners and renters increasingly vote in different ways.
Research from Australia and abroad finds that a person’s place in the housing market now matters more to their vote than their place in the labour market. The Coalition has always done best among outright owners, and its support among renters has collapsed over two decades. The Greens have gained most among renters, while Labor’s own vote barely differs between owners and renters.
The same divide runs through housing policy. House prices, construction, capital gains tax and negative gearing, renters’ rights and rent caps all set the interests of renters against those of owners and landlords.
The full report · 11 pages, with every chart.
Get the full reportWhat we found
1. Home ownership has fallen, most sharply among younger Australians
Home ownership peaked at 71% in 1966 and had fallen to 67% by 2021. Among 25 to 34 year olds it dropped from 61% in 1981 to 43% in 2021, and first homes are often bought later. Owners have changed too: over 40% of homes were owned outright in 1996, against about 31% in 2021.
2. Where people sit in the housing market now shapes their vote more than class
The old divide between a working class left and a middle class right has broken down. Shaun Ratcliff’s Australian research finds owning assets predicts voting intention better than income, with owners of multiple asset classes particularly likely to vote for the Coalition. UK political scientist Josh Goddard finds similar patterns across developed countries, with the effect strongest among those who own several homes and rent them out.
3. Coalition support among renters has collapsed over two decades
Australian Election Study data, analysed by Ferran Martinez i Coma and Francisco Perales, shows the Coalition has always done best among those who own their home outright, with mortgage holders just behind. In 1996 and 1998 its support among renters was only slightly lower than among mortgage holders. Over the last two decades it has collapsed.
4. Renters lean to the Greens, while Labor’s core vote barely changes
The Greens poll significantly better among renters than home owners, and that gap has widened since 2010; Goddard finds renters elsewhere favour parties of the “radical left”, which in Australia means the Greens. Labor does better among renters on a two-party-preferred basis only because minor parties such as the Greens do so well with them. Labor’s own support is similar across owners, mortgage holders and renters, and it has lost its old advantage among renters.
What’s in the report
- Introduction p. 3
- The growing renters bloc p. 4
- How housing affects how you vote p. 7
- Policy issues driven by housing p. 10
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