The state of Labor
Why Labor’s landslide rests on a primary vote under 35%, and what that means for the party
Labor won the 2025 federal election in a landslide, its best result since 1943, but on a primary vote of just 34.6%. The brief looked at what that narrow base meant for the party: in the Senate, in once-safe seats now contested by the Greens and independents, in the states, and inside the party, where the factional balance and the next leader were starting to matter.
It concluded that Labor was likely to hold power for at least two terms, but that its position was not insurmountable. About 20% of voters backed someone else but preferenced Labor over the Coalition, roughly half of them Greens voters, and with a large crossbench, a swing back to the right could leave Labor able to govern only in an alliance with crossbenchers.
The full report · 7 pages, with every chart.
Get the full reportWhat we found
1. Labor’s best result since 1943 came on a primary vote of 34.6%
Labor won 94 of 150 seats with a two-party-preferred vote of 55.25%, its highest since 1943 and the third-highest for either side since the war. Its primary vote was one of the lowest for a winning major party and had hovered around 32–35% at the last five elections, since Labor support collapsed in 2013; what changed by 2022 was that the Coalition vote collapsed too, freeing more preferences for Labor.
2. The low primary vote left Labor with just 29 of 76 Senate seats
Even with 4–2 splits in Victoria and South Australia and the defection of former Greens senator Dorinda Cox, Labor held just over a third of the Senate and needed ten more votes to pass legislation. That left only the Greens or the Coalition as partners, and with the Greens keen to be seen “winning” any negotiation, the government had tried working with the Coalition instead, though the two were a long way apart.
3. Once-safe Labor seats had become contests with the Greens and independents
Nine seats were Labor-versus-Greens contests in 2025, and the Greens were only a small two-candidate-preferred swing from winning Melbourne and Wills; a drop in Labor’s vote could also cost it Brisbane, Griffith, Macnamara or Richmond. Independents, once a threat mostly to Coalition seats, came close in Bean and Fremantle and polled strongly in Franklin, Watson, Blaxland and Calwell.
4. The Left took a 12–11 majority in Cabinet after the election
The Right, dominant federally by the early 2000s, had lost its majority on the federal executive and in Cabinet, and now had strong control only in New South Wales and South Australia, while the Left was stronger in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. The post-election reshuffle gave the Left two more Cabinet seats at the Right’s expense. Looking past Albanese, the brief named Jim Chalmers as an obvious contender, with Tony Burke worth watching.
What’s in the report
- Labor’s primary vote at every House election since 1949, against the Coalition and minor parties
- The seats where Labor now faces the Greens and independents
- Labor’s prospects in the states, from Victoria to South Australia
- The factional balance and the contenders to succeed Albanese
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